29 diciembre, 2014

Analysis of College Football's Regular Season

The current top four teams in College Football (Alabama, Oregon, Florida State, Ohio State) were considered the favorites by many people in early August.  However, after the announcement that Ohio State's Braxton Miller would miss the 2014 season, Ohio State was no longer one of the favorites to make the Playoffs.

 Four months and two starting quarterbacks later, Ohio State ended up finding itself in the Playoffs anyways, albeit with the three previously mentioned teams. I foresaw Oklahoma following last year's bowl win over Alabama with another great season, but 3/4 of their one possession games got away from them, and Baylor overpowered them.

Apart from South Carolina, North Carolina and a few others, most teams delivered as I anticipated. In 2013 I picked TCU to have a great year--one year too early (finished 4-8). This year a top 25 finish still seemed probable for the Horned Frogs, and this was a year they did much more than that.

Mississippi State, Missouri and Arizona State were also better than I thought.

 The following two sections include some results from my preseason rankings and analysis, including the good, bad and well... very bad. The picks for the teams at the top of their respective conferences were more accurate than the teams at the bottom.

1) I correctly guessed the number of losses (at least within one) for 21 of my top 35 teams (60%).
2) 43/87 ( 49.4%) overall selections within one loss (Located at the bottom).

Exact losses predicted 
Off by one loss
Off by more than one loss

 35 TX A&M 8-4 (Finished 7-5)

 34 TCU 8-4 (11-1)

 33 Kansas State 8-4 (9-3)

 32 Oregon State 8-4: (5-7)

 31 Duke 9-3 (9-3) 

30 Texas 8-4 (7-5) 
   
29 Wisconsin 8-4 (10-3) 
   
28 Northwestern 9-3 (5-7)

 27 Michigan 8-4 (5-7)
   
26 UCF 9-3 (9-3)
   
25 Boise State 10-3 (11-2) 
 
24 Virginia Tech 9-3 (6-6) 
 
23 Notre Dame 8-4 (7-5)
 
22 Clemson 9-3 (9-3)

 21 Houston 10-2 (7-5) 

20 Marshall 11-2 (12-1)

 19 Washington 9-3 (8-5)

 18 Iowa 10-3 (7-5)
 
17 Ohio State 9-3 (12-1)
 
16 BYU 10-2 (8-4)

 15 USC 9-3 (8-4)

 14 Ole Miss 9-3 (9-3)

 13 North Carolina 10-3 (6-6)

 12 LSU 9-3 (8-4)

11 Baylor 10-2 (11-1)

10 Stanford 9-3 (7-5)
 
9 UCLA 10-3 (9-3)

8 Georgia 10-2 (9-3)

7 South Carolina 10-3 (6-6)

6 Auburn 10-2 (8-4)

5 Michigan State 11-2 (10-2)

 4 Oregon 11-2 (12-1)

 3 Oklahoma 11-1 (8-4)

 2 Alabama 11-2 (12-1)

 1 Florida State 13-0 (13-0)

 (By overall records)
  • AAC
  1. Houston (Season Preview) 10-2 (finished 7-5)
  2. UCF 9-3
  3. Cincinnati 9-3
  4. East Carolina 8-4
  5. USF 7-5 (4-8)
  6. Memphis 6-6 (10-3)
  7. Connecticut 5-7 (2-10)
  8. SMU (1-11)
  9. Tulane (3-9)
  10. Tulsa... (2-10)
  11. Temple (6-6)
  •  ACC
  1. Florida State 13-0
  2. North Car 10-3 (6-6)
  3. Virginia Tech 9-3 (6-6)
  4. Clemson 9-3
  5. Duke 9-3
  6. Louisville 8-4 (9-3)
  7. Georgia Tech 7-5 (10-3)
  8. Pittsburgh 7-5 (6-6)
  9. Miami 5-7 (6-6)
  10. Virginia 5-7 (5-7)
  11. NC State 5-7 (7-5)
  12. Syracuse 4-8 (3-9)
  13. Boston College 4-8 (7-5)
  14. Wake Forest 1-11 (3-9)
  •  Big Ten
  1. Michigan State 11-2 (10-2)
  2. Iowa 10-3 (7-5)
  3. Ohio State 9-3 (12-1)
  4. Northwestern 9-3 (5-7)
  5. Michigan 8-4 (5-7)
  6. Wisconsin 8-4 (10-3)
  7. Nebraska 8-4 (9-3)
  8. Maryland 7-5
  9. Rutgers 7-5
  10. Penn St 6-6
  • Big 12
  1. Oklahoma 11-1 (8-4)
  2. Baylor 10-2 (11-1)
  3. Texas 8-4 (7-5)
  4. TCU 8-4 (11-1)
  5. Kansas State 8-4 (9-3)
  6. Texas Tech 7-5 (4-8)
  7. Oklahoma St 7-5 (6-6)
  8. Iowa St... (2-10)
  9. West Virginia... (7-5)
  10. Kansas... (3-9)
  • Conference USA
  1. Marshall 11-2 (12-1)
  2. UT San Antonio 9-4 (4-8)
  3. North Texas 8-4 (4-8)
  4. Midd Tenn St 7-5 (6-6)
  5. Louisiana Tech 6-6 (8-5)
  6. Southern Miss 5-7 (3-9)
  • Independents
  1. BYU (more info to come) 10-2 (8-4)
  2. Navy 9-3 (7-5)
  3. Notre Dame 8-4 (7-5)
  4. Army 6-6 (4-8)
  •  MAC
  1. Toledo 10-3 (8-4)
  2. Northern Ill 9-3 (11-2)
  3. Bowling Green 9-4 (7-6)
  4. Central Mich 7-5
  • Mountain West
  1. Boise State 10-3 (11-2)
  2. Fresno State 10-3 (6-7)
  3. Utah State 9-4 (9-4)
  4. Nevada 8-4 (7-5)
  5. Colorado State 7-5 (10-2)
  6. San Diego State 7-5
  • PAC 12
  1. Oregon 11-2 (12-1)
  2. UCLA 10-3 (9-3)
  3. Stanford 9-3 (7-5)
  4. Washington 9-3 (8-5)
  5. USC 9-3 (8-4)
  6. Oregon State 8-4 (5-7)
  7. Arizona 8-4 (10-3)
  8. Utah 6-6 (8-4)
  9. Washington St 6-6 (3-9)
  10. Arizona St 5-7 (9-3)
  11. California 2-10 (5-7)
  12. Colorado 2-10
  • SEC
  1. Alabama 11-2 (12-1)
  2. Auburn 10-2 (8-4)
  3. Georgia 10-2 (9-3)
  4. South Carolina 10-3 (6-6)
  5. LSU 9-3 (8-4)
  6. Ole Miss 9-3
  7. TX A&M 8-4 (7-5)
  8. Florida 7-5 (6-5)
  9. Mississippi State 7-5 (10-2)
  10. Missouri 7-5 (10-3)
  11. Tennessee 6-6
  12. Vanderbilt 5-7 (3-9)
  13. Arkansas 4-8 (6-6)
  14. Kentucky 3-9 (5-7)    
Resources:
http://espn.go.com/college-football/
philsteele.com/
http://www.nationalchamps.net/2014/earlybird/index.htm
 
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